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KMID : 1024519990080030349
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Journal of the Environmental Sciences
1999 Volume.8 No. 3 p.349 ~ p.354
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Forecasting of Dissolved Oxygen at Kongju Station using a Transfer Function Noise Model
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Ryu Byeong-Ro
Cho Chung-Seok
Han Yang-Su
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Abstract
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The transfer function was introduced to establish the prediction method for the DO concentration at the intaking point of Kongju Water Works System. In the mose cases we analyze a single time series without explicitly using information contained in the related time series. In many forecasting situations, other events will systematically influence the series to be forecasted(the dependent variables), and therefore, there is need to go beyond a univariate forecasting model. Thus, we must bulid a forecasting model that incorporates more than one time series and introduces explicitly the dynamic characteristics of the system. Such a model is called a multiple time series model or transfer function model. The purpose of this study is to develop the stochastic stream water quality model for the intaking station of Kongju city waterworks in Keum river system. The performance of the multiplicative ARIMA model and the transfer function noise model were examined through comparisons between the historical and generated monthly dissolved oxygen series. The result reveal that the transfer function noise model lead to the improved accuracy.
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KEYWORD
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transfer function, water quality model, forecasting, multiplicative ARIMA
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